Decision Simulator

Algoma Verity — Expectation Bias on the Delaware River

Algoma Verity
Dry bulk carrier, 623ft · Delaware River near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · 8 January 2025
Source: NTSB MIR-26-06

3Decision Points 3Possible Outcomes —Avg. Play Time

The Situation

You're on the bridge team of a laden dry bulk carrier transiting upriver under pilotage, escorted by a tug. Approaching a bend in the channel, the pilot has deliberately positioned the ship outside the channel to starboard, expecting the flood current to push it back to port as it rounds the bend. The ship keeps drifting further outside the channel despite rudder corrections. What happens next is your call.

The Lesson

A plan formed before the maneuver isn't a substitute for actively questioning what's actually happening once it's underway -- especially once the evidence stops matching the plan.

Human Element

The real investigation traced this to expectation bias -- the pilot's belief that the current and the ship's handling characteristics would have more effect than they actually did, defended against a growing set of contradicting evidence rather than updated by it.

Try the First Decision

The ship's bow is now 200 feet outside the channel and still drifting further out despite rudder corrections. The current isn't correcting the swing the way the pilot expected. What do you do?

A. Recognise the plan isn't working -- reduce speed, communicate the deviation clearly, actively reassess before committing further
B. Trust the plan a little longer -- the current should still correct it as the bend continues

This is a preview — the full scenario branches from here based on what you choose, with real consequences and a debrief at the end.

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