Post-incident analysis: a weather application showed the squall on radar 45 minutes before it hit but no one checked the forecast after departure. Which human factor best describes this failure?

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Accepted Answer

Normalisation of deviance: checking the forecast only at departure (not during the passage) had become normal practice for this crew because conditions had always been as forecast — so the absence of checks felt routine and safe. Combined with complacency after a good first 3 hours of sailing NORMALISATION OF DEVIANCE: the practice of not checking weather updates mid-passage became normal over many passages without incident. This is a classic James Reason "latent failure" — the risk existed for many passages but only manifested when conditions changed significantly. Option C (confirmation bias) is also a valid contributing factor and is often co-present with normalisation of deviance. The lesson: weather monitoring is an ongoing task, not a departure checklist item. Modern apps (Windy, Met Office Marine) send squall alerts — but only if the phone is not left below on charge.